Mass Tort Portfolio Valuation: A Comprehensive Guide for Law Firms

For law firms with a substantial portfolio of mass tort cases, assessing the strength of their cases and predicting outcomes is crucial to determining how best to allocate resources. The ability to foresee outcomes, both in terms of financial settlements and strategic advantages, not only drives operational efficiency but also optimizes the chances of success in each case. But how do you ensure that your firm’s cases are positioned to succeed? How do you make informed decisions about where to allocate your resources to maximize impact across your entire portfolio?

These are some of the most critical questions that any law firm handling mass torts should actively address. A robust portfolio valuation can serve as the foundation for these answers, providing a detailed and data-driven framework for decision-making. Without this kind of systematic evaluation, law firms risk underperforming in areas where they should excel or overextending resources on cases that do not align with their core strengths or strategic priorities. A comprehensive portfolio evaluation involves more than just assessing individual case merits; it requires an understanding of the broader litigation landscape, including market trends, client needs, case management capacity, and financial projections. By incorporating these elements into a unified analytical framework, firms are better equipped to identify potential risks, seize emerging opportunities, and strategically allocate resources for maximum impact.

This white paper will explore the key components of portfolio evaluation, including the methodologies and technologies available to law firms seeking to enhance their planning. By the end of this paper, readers will have a deeper understanding of why a well-executed portfolio evaluation process is essential for law firms aiming to optimize their mass tort practices and deliver better outcomes for their clients.

Portfolio Valuation: Projecting Risk and Payoff

For mass tort law firms, portfolio value is more than a final settlement number—it’s a moving target shaped by risk, opportunity, and the uncertainty of both. As litigation progresses and torts evolve, so does the financial outlook of the cases into which a firm has invested their time, money, and reputation.

Understanding the projected value of a firm’s mass tort portfolio can support better strategic decisions around case acquisition, staffing, financing, and settlement timing. But because many of the key variables are unknown or uncertain, especially early in a tort’s lifecycle, firms need a consistent and defensible approach to valuation that reflects the fluid nature of litigation.

At Verus, we approach portfolio valuation through a data-driven model grounded in expected value. This means treating each case not as a guaranteed outcome, but as a probabilistic investment—with associated risks and rewards. While we don’t pretend to eliminate uncertainty, we offer a framework that helps law firms see how changes in their own operations or external developments may significantly alter the value of their portfolio over time.

A Formula-Based Framework

Our high-level model values a portfolio as the sum of expected values across all the torts a firm is handling. The core concept is simple: each case has an expected return based on the likelihood of settlement, the size of the potential award, the firm’s share of recovery, and risks like client dropout or litigation costs.

Each variable in our model reflects a real-world component of litigation, and most are subject to change over the lifecycle of a case. That’s why the real value of the model isn’t in a single static number—it’s in the methodology and the ability to update estimates as new information emerges.

Estimating the Components

Many inputs in our models are not directly known at the outset. But that doesn’t make them unknowable. We estimate them using a combination of client data, public records, historical trends, and patterns we’ve observed across the mass tort landscape. Below are some of the key components and how we help firms bring clarity to each:

Probability of Settlement 

We assess this using a “clustering” approach, grouping torts based on features like the clarity of scientific causation, existence of an MDL, defendant behavior in prior cases, and external pressure from media or regulation. This gives us a realistic, case-type-informed estimate of how likely a tort is to resolve without trial.

Gross Damages 

A challenge in our industry is that verdicts and settlements may not be determined by the time we have commenced ongoing resource allocation to a tort. At Verus, we use available data to build damages estimates that evolve over time. Early in a tort’s life, these estimates may carry more uncertainty—but we refine them continually as bellwether cases proceed, judicial rulings come in, or scientific developments shift the landscape. This lets firms see when the expected payout on their portfolio may be rising—or at risk.

Case Quality 

We evaluate case quality through intake completeness, injury documentation, and overall alignment with the tort’s core fact pattern and expected criteria for settlement. This isn’t just a passive measure—Verus actively supports law firms in improving case quality through claimant outreach and support. When documentation improves, so does the value of the case. Our dual role as analysts and service providers creates a feedback loop that strengthens the portfolio in real time.

Attrition Risk 

Not all clients stay engaged. Withdrawals, non-responsiveness, and procedural missteps can erode the firm’s share of any future award. We estimate attrition rates using industry patterns and firm-specific data, with sensitivity to factors like case quality and communication history. While we don’t share proprietary data from other clients, our vantage point across the industry allows us to bring meaningful intelligence to attrition forecasting.

Net Fee and Costs

We pull fee structures directly from firm records, accounting for referral splits and co-counsel arrangements. Litigation costs are modeled as a percentage of recovery, providing a consistent basis for net projections without assuming uniformity across torts.

Time and Discount Rate 

We estimate time to resolution based on litigation stage and historical patterns, applying a public benchmark discount rate (like the 5-year Treasury yield) to reflect the time value of money without injecting arbitrary assumptions.

Mass Tort Portfolio Valuation: A Practical Example

Let’s say a firm has 1,000 cases in a mature mass tort. We estimate a 70% chance of settlement, average gross damages of $150,000, moderate case quality, and a standard contingency fee. Applying realistic dropout and cost assumptions, we might project a per-case expected value around $18,000. When discounting over a 3-year period, that results in a present-value portfolio of roughly $12 million.

The key isn’t the exact number—it’s the ability to model scenarios, test sensitivities, and track how the portfolio evolves over time.

Verus: Your Partner for Mass Tort Portfolio Optimization

At Verus, we help law firms understand the true value of their mass tort portfolios—today and into the future. Our Estimation Services leverage structured data, proven methodologies, and deep domain expertise to deliver defensible, real-time portfolio valuations.

Through our Outreach and Support Services, we engage directly with claimants to secure missing documentation, complete medical records, and reduce attrition—strengthening the inputs that drive stronger outcomes and higher valuations.

This integrated approach doesn’t just provide a clearer picture of portfolio value—it empowers firms to grow that value. By identifying high-ROI opportunities and optimizing case strategy, we help firms deliver efficient justice at scale. Firms that invest in comprehensive assessments gain a competitive advantage: they are better positioned to forecast outcomes, streamline operations, and ultimately serve their clients more effectively.

In today’s fast-moving, high-stakes litigation environment, data-informed portfolio evaluation is no longer optional—it’s essential. Verus gives you the insight, support, and strategy to move forward with confidence.

Ready to see what your portfolio is really worth? Let’s talk.